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No.R06X0016

ベトナム-通信、モバイル、ブロードバンド市場将来予測(英語版)

Vietnam - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts

出版日 2011年8月
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ページ数 98ページ
発行<調査・編集> Paul Budde Communication Pty. Ltd.
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<Overview>
This report provides a comprehensive overview of the trends and developments in the telecommunications and digital media markets in Vietnam. Subjects covered include:

Key Statistics;
・Market and Industry Overviews and Analyses;
・Regulatory Environment and Development;
・Major Players - fixed and mobile;
・Infrastructure;
・Broadcasting and Digital Media;
・Mobile Voice and Data Market;
・Internet, including VoIP;
・Broadband Services - fixed and wireless;
・Scenario Forecasts - fixed-line, mobile and broadband subscribers.

<Executive Summary>
Coming into 2011 the ’hot’ Vietnam telecoms market appeared to stall prompting questions about the length of ’pause’ and overall future direction
This Annual Publication profiles the vibrant telecom market in Vietnam. The energy and creativity of this market have been attracting considerable attention. By some measures the country is still in a comparatively early stage of its telecommunications development. However, Vietnam has been aggressively expanding its national infrastructure and growing its subscriber bases across all market segments. Progress in developing the mobile market has been especially impressive; and whilst the Internet market, and particularly the roll-out of broadband Internet, is still very much in the early development phase, the last three years have seen a significant surge in the country’s online access.

Another year of 40% mobile subscriber growth, combined with healthy expansion of broadband internet and consolidation of the fixed line market, meant that 2010 was business as usual for the Vietnam telecom sector. However, the first half of 2011 suggested the initial signs of a slowing market. Mobile subscriber expansion stalled and, most significantly, there was a serious slowing of growth in fixed broadband services. Whilst the mobile market was certainly nearing saturation, the speed with which the slow down seemed to occur was particularly striking. The market will no doubt be watched closely to see what happens next.

In recent years the revitalised telecom sector in Vietnam became the target for a fresh round of investor interest. Even in the wake of the global financial crisis numerous foreign telcos were turning their attention to this most significant of South East Asian markets. The market continues to attract high investor interest. It is generally agreed that the country has come out of a period of wishful thinking - based on the belief that it could ’go it alone.’

The government has overseen the introduction of a level of competition into the telecoms market and this, combined with a generally improved economic climate within the country, has triggered a round of strong growth in the telecom sector. A significant milestone in this changing business environment was Vietnam’s accession to the WTO in 2007. More recently the move to allow an increased level of ’equitisation’ (the Vietnamese government’s word for ’privatisation’) has sent a clear message to investors that the rules are changing in a positive way and the investment door has been opened. There is, however, some concern that these equitisation plans have not yet been acted upon. Nor is it completely clear what form the government’s involvement in the telecom sector will take in the future.

While there has been strong growth in Vietnam’s mobile sector (around 160 million subscribers early in 2011 for a penetration of almost 180%), the country’s fixed-line subscriber growth has not been so impressive. With the government seeming to be hedging somewhat on reporting fixed-line statistics, this market segment has been struggling to a certain degree over the last few years. It seems that growth has now flattened out. This is not to underestimate the fixed line infrastructure that has been put in place. The excellent national coverage already achieved is indeed impressive. In the meantime, the government continues to take a cautious position to the Internet; government reticence has not, however, stopped the online market from moving along a solid growth path. Internet user penetration was estimated at an impressive 33% in early 2011. The broadband segment was growing strongly, although, into 2011 much of the growth was in mobile wireless broadband rather than fixed broadband.


Market highlights

・Vietnam’s mobile market had reached 158 million subscribers by March 2011 for a penetration of 176%.

・The country’s annual growth rate in mobile subscribers was running at close to 40% in 2010 but moderated sharply into 2011 with growth for the year likely to be under 10%.

・In the 2007/2010 period the country’s fixed broadband internet market had grown strongly, jumping 200% to reach more than 3.6 million by end-2010.

・Overall fixed broadband penetration remained relatively low, however, at just 4% of population.

・Although interest in broadband services in Vietnam had finally picked up, fixed broadband growth suffered a setback in the first half of 2011.

・By contrast, mobile wireless broadband saw strong growth into 2011.

・Fixed-line subscriber numbers appeared to be stagnating in 2010/2011 (with some inconsistent figures coming from the regulator).

・Following on from the successful launch of its Vinasat-1 satellite in early 2008, Vietnam was already moving towards the country’s second venture into the satellite market, with the 2012 launch of Vinasat-2 reportedly running to schedule.

・Despite what at times seems a painfully slow process of regulatory reform, change certainly has occurred and Vietnam’s telecom sector is now a vastly different market from what it was a decade ago.

・Another year has gone by and we are still awaiting progress on the equitisation of Vietnam’s state-owned telecom operators.

-CONTENTS-
1. Key Statistics

2. Country Overview
2.1 Background
2.2 Economy

3. Telecommunications Market
3.1 Overview of Vietnam’s telecom market
3.1.1 Mobile operators in a growth market
3.1.2 Introduction of 3G
3.2 Background to development
3.3 Analysis: the government’s role
3.4 Graft

4. Regulatory Environment
4.1 Background
4.1.1 Ministry of Posts and Telematics (MPT)
4.1.2 Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC)
4.2 Domestic fixed-line competition
4.3 Tariffs
4.4 International voice traffic and tariffs
4.5 Numbering plans
4.6 Foreign investment
4.6.1 Vietnam-US Bilateral Trade Agreement
4.6.2 World Trade Organization (WTO) accession
4.7 Liberalisation
4.8 Privatisation of state-owned enterprises: ’equitisation’ process
4.9 Telecom licences and investment requirements
4.10 Registration of prepaid mobile services
4.11 Mobile Number Portability (MNP)

5. Major Fixed Network Operators
5.1 Overview
5.1.1 Vietnam Post & Telecommunications (VNPT)
5.1.2 Saigon Postel
5.1.3 Viettel
5.1.4 VP Telecom/EVN Telecom
5.1.5 FPT Telecom
5.1.6 GTel

6. Telecommunications Infrastructure
6.1 National telecom network
6.1.1 Overview
6.1.2 Background to development
6.1.3 Payphones
6.1.4 Next Generation Networks (NGNs)
6.1.5 Wireless Local Loop (WLL)
6.2 National infrastructure projects and equitisation
6.2.1 SK Telecom
6.3 International infrastructure
6.3.1 Background to development
6.3.2 Submarine cable networks
6.3.3 Satellite networks

7. Broadband Market
7.1 Overview
7.2 Background
7.3 Broadband and Internet statistics
7.4 Background to Internet development in Vietnam
7.5 Regulatory environment
7.5.1 Overview
7.5.2 Government control
7.5.3 Cyber Law
7.6 Broadband technologies
7.6.1 Digital Subscriber Line (DSL)
7.6.2 Cable modem
7.6.3 Wireless broadband
7.6.4 Satellite Internet
7.7 Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP)
7.7.1 Background

8. Digital Media / Digital Economy
8.1 Vietnam’s broadcasting market
8.1.1 Overview
8.1.2 Cable TV
8.1.3 Satellite TV
8.1.4 Mobile TV
8.1.5 Film content censorship
8.2 Content and e-services
8.2.1 E-commerce
8.2.2 E-Government
8.2.3 E-education

9. Mobile Communications
9.1 Overview of Vietnam’s mobile market
9.1.1 Background
9.1.2 Mobile statistics
9.1.3 Regulatory issues
9.1.4 Tariffs and revenue
9.1.5 Market restructuring: Equitisation
9.1.6 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs)
9.1.7 Handset manufacture
9.2 Mobile technologies
9.2.1 GSM and CDMA
9.2.2 Third Generation (3G) services
9.2.3 4G / Long Term Evolution (LTE)
9.3 Mobile voice services
9.3.1 Prepaid
9.3.2 Registration of prepaid services
9.4 Mobile data services
9.4.1 Short Message Service (SMS)
9.4.2 Multimedia Message Service (MMS)
9.4.3 General Packet Radio Service (GPRS)
9.4.4 Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution (EDGE)
9.4.5 International remittances
9.5 Mobile applications
9.6 Major mobile operators
9.6.1 VNPT
9.6.2 Mobifone
9.6.3 Vinaphone
9.6.4 S-Fone (S-Telecom)
9.6.5 Viettel
9.6.6 EVN Telecom (formerly VP Telecom)
9.6.7 Vietnamobile (formerly Hutchison Vietnam/HT Mobile)
9.6.8 GTel Mobile (Beeline)

10. Forecasts
10.1 Forecasts - fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
10.2 Forecasts - mobile services - 2015; 2020
10.3 Forecasts - Internet services - 2015; 2020

11. Glossary of Abbreviations

<Table>
Table 1 - Country statistics Vietnam - 2011
Table 2 - Telephone network statistics - March 2011
Table 3 - Internet user statistics - 2010
Table 4 - Broadband statistics - 2010
Table 5 - Mobile statistics - March 2011
Table 6 - National telecommunications authorities
Table 7 - Vietnam’s GDP real growth rate - 2006 - 2011
Table 8 - VNPT fixed-line subscribers and teledensity - 2000 - 2010
Table 9 - Fixed lines in service and teledensity - 1990 - 2012
Table 10 - Fixed broadband subscribers - 2003 - 2011
Table 11 - Broadband subscribers and household overview - May 2011
Table 12 - Internet users and penetration - 1998 - 2012
Table 13 - Internet subscribers - 1998 - 2012
Table 14 - Total international Internet bandwidth - 2003 - 2011
Table 15 - DSL subscribers - 2003 - 2011
Table 16 - VNPT/VDC fixed broadband subscribers - 2006 - 2011
Table 17 - Key broadcasting statistics - 2010
Table 18 - Mobile subscribers - 1995 - 2012
Table 19 - Mobile operators, subscribers and annual change - 2010
Table 20 - Mobile subscribers and market share by operator - 2010
Table 21 - Mobile services revenue - 1993 - 2010
Table 22 - Mobile services sector estimated ARPU - 1998 - 2010
Table 23 - 3G mobile subscribers by operator - March 2010
Table 24 -VNPT subscribers - 1998 - 2010
Table 25 - Mobifone subscribers - 1998 - 2010
Table 26 - Vinaphone subscribers - 1998 - 2010
Table 27 - S-Fone subscribers - 2003 - 2010
Table 28 - Viettel subscribers - 2004 - 2010
Table 29 - EVN Telecom subscribers - 2006 - 2010
Table 30 - HT Mobile (CDMA) subscribers - 2006 - 2009
Table 31 - Vietnamobile (GSM) subscribers - 2009 - 2010
Table 32 - Beeline subscribers - 2009 - 2010
Table 33 - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020
Table 34 - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020
Table 35 - Forecast Internet subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020

<Exhibit>
Exhibit 1 - Overview of telecommunications development in Vietnam
- 1993 - 2011

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