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調査会社一覧

No.R06X0015

インド-通信、モバイル、ブロードバンド市場将来予測(英語版)

India - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts

出版日 2011年7月
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ページ数 179ページ
発行<調査・編集> Paul Budde Communication Pty. Ltd.
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<Overview>
This report provides a comprehensive overview of the trends and developments in the telecommunications and digital media markets in India. Subjects covered include:

・Key statistics;
・Market and industry overviews;
・Regulatory environment;
・Major players (fixed and mobile);
・Infrastructure development - national and international;
・Digital media;
・Mobile voice and data market;
・Internet, including VoIP and IPTV;
・Broadband services;
・Regulatory environment;
・Telecom market forecasts for selected segments/years to 2020.

<Executive Summary>
As India feels the shockwaves of the so-called ’2G scandal’, the operators are busily rolling out their 3G networks.
India continues to be one of the fastest growing major telecom markets in the world. It is also one of the largest. Sweeping reforms introduced by successive Indian governments over the last decade have dramatically changed the nature of telecommunications in the country. The mobile sector has grown from around 10 million subscribers in 2002 to pass the 750 million mark by the end of 2010 and the market was growing strongly into 2011. The boom in the mobile industry is expected to continue at least into the medium term. The fixed-line market, however, which had grown strongly for a while, has been experiencing zero and negative growth of late. in the meantime, there has been a fresh effort made to promote broadband internet access throughout the country; after a period in which broadband development languished - and the government became concerned - there was new hope for a serious expansion phase in this segment of the market.

A number of factors have been responsible for the amazing growth in India’s telecom sector; apart from the obvious booming economy and the rapid expansion in the country’s middle class, the growth drivers include low tariffs, low handset prices and most notably a highly competitive market created by the government and the regulator. The government has continued to open the market up to more and more competition. Home to a clutch of global operators working with local companies, the government has continued to issue licences to new telecom operators. Competition in the market place has become even more intense over the last year or so. The launch of Mobile Number Portability (MNP) in 2011 added yet another dimension to this intensely competitive market.

While the mobile subscriber base was continuing to grow at an annual rate of around 40%, Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) has been steadily declining as competing operators offer cheaper tariffs; at the same time usage levels have remained reasonably high thus slowing the decline in revenues. There has been a major push in recent years to take mobile services into the poorer and rural areas of the country; this has also weighed heavily on ARPUs.

In 2010 the long-awaited 3G auctions finally took place. By year end and into 2011 the 3G networks were being rolled out on a large scale and the operators started delivering next generation services to customers. 3G has certainly provided yet another boost to the already huge mobile sector. Apart from the impact on the mobile market itself, the 3G spectrum auction earned revenue of US$14.6 billion for the government, an amount that far exceeded expectations and was welcomed by the government as a major contribution to improving the national deficit. All things considered the mobile industry should continue to grow for the time being.

With only around 3% fixed-line penetration, India has nevertheless achieved a remarkable national coverage, with 98% of the population having some form of access to a telephone. The heavy investment in telecoms infrastructure over the last decade has seen India’s huge population delivered at least some level of telephone service. At the same time major difficulties persist. Fixed-line subscriber numbers stood at 33 million by early 2011, but a continuing decline in this segment of the market was evident. The future of fixed lines remained uncertain.

With the government continuing to push to complete the restructuring of the telecommunications regulatory regime, the opening up of the market to full scale competition has been dramatic. The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) remains committed to further structural reforms. The adoption of Unified Licensing, a change in the Access Deficit Charge regime, and the encouragement of increased infrastructure sharing, especially towers for mobile networks, were all contributing to ongoing growth. Another important initiative has been the Indian government’s revised Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) policy which increased the foreign ownership cap from 49% to 74%. If anything it could be said that the regulation of the market has been overly enthusiastic; there being some signs that the market was starting to suffer from the complexity of the regulatory regime. In parallel with the regulatory change process, there has been a continuing evolution of the market through a series of mergers and takeovers among the mobile operators that has initially resulted in a welcome and productive consolidation.

One segment of the market that continued to puzzle the observer - and the government - is broadband Internet. Despite the obvious enthusiasm for Internet access to be found across the country, India’s move into high-speed broadband Internet has been noticeably sluggish. The TRAI in describing the situation in 2010 noted that ’... the performance so far has not been up to the expectations’. The regulator’s reference point was the targets set in the government’s National Broadband Policy issued in 2004, with growth falling well short of these targets. By 2011 broadband Internet penetration in India was still a low 1%, with these broadband services accounting for about 65% of the total Internet subscriber base. In other words, coming into 2011 there were less than 12 million broadband subscribers in a country of 1.2 billion people. In the meantime, somewhat paradoxically, the overall level of Internet usage seems to be growing strongly, perhaps boosted by the widespread use of Internet cafes and other points of public online access. There were in excess of an estimated 70 million Internet users throughout the country by January 2011, this representing a penetration of almost 6%.

Key highlights

・Into 2011, growth in India’s mobile market was continuing in its boom mode;

・By April 2011 the country had 827 million mobile subscribers, for a penetration of 69%;

・The mobile market was continuing to expand at an annual rate in excess of 40% into 2011;

・GSM was strengthening its position as the dominant mobile technology with 85% of the mobile subscriber market, as CDMA slipped further behind;

・The number of broadband Internet subscribers is finally on the increase, reaching 12 million for a penetration of 1% by population as at April 2011;

・DSL, whilst holding around 85% of the local broadband market, was steadily losing market share to other non-DSL broadband platforms, especially to wireless broadband platforms;

・After auctioning 3G spectrum licences in 2010, India was finally witnessing the large scale roll-out of 3G networks by operators across the country coming into 2011;

・The 3G auction delivered US$14.6 billion in revenue to the government and was certainly an unqualified success in this respect;

・An equally high profile auction of wireless broadband spectrum followed the 3G auction in 2010 and pumped even more energy into an already invigorated wireless broadband market;
・This auction raised another US$8.2 billion in revenue for the government

-CONTENTS-
1. Key Statistics and Country Overview

2. Country overview
2.1 Background
2.2 Economy

3. Telecommunications Market
3.1 Overview
3.2 Competition
3.3 2G corruption scandal
3.3.1 Allegations
3.3.2 Charges
3.3.3 Analysis: 2G scandal - 2011
3.4 Analysis: India in the aftermath of the global financial crisis
3.5 Third Generation (3G) auction
3.6 WiMAX/wireless broadband spectrum auction
3.7 Further allocation of wireless spectrum
3.8 Foreign investment
3.8.1 Import of Chinese telecom equipment
3.9 Universal service
3.10 Government revenue

4. Regulatory Environment
4.1 Telecommunications authorities
4.1.1 Ministry for Communications (MoC)
4.1.2 Department of Telecommunications (DoT)
4.1.3 Telecom Commission
4.1.4 Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI)
4.1.5 Telecom Dispute Settlement & Appellate Tribunal (TDSAT)
4.1.6 Telecom Sector Ombudsman (TSO)
4.1.7 Communications Commission of India (CCI)
4.2 Licensing circles
4.3 Subscribers statistics
4.4 Regulatory developments
4.4.1 Overview
4.4.2 New spectrum policy
4.4.3 Penalties for delayed roll-out
4.4.4 Spectrum ’vacation’
4.4.5 Cancelled licences
4.4.6 Access Deficit Charge (ADC)
4.4.7 Excess bandwidth fees
4.4.8 Unified Access Services Licence (UASL)
4.4.9 Basic Telephone Service (BTS) licensing guidelines
4.4.10 The ’fixed’ mobile story
4.4.11 Offshore investment
4.4.12 The Blackberry privacy case
4.4.13 Spectrum charges
4.4.14 Spectrum in 2014
4.5 National Telecom Policies
4.5.1 National Telecom Policies 1999 (NTP-99)
4.5.2 Addendum to NTP-99
4.5.3 New National Telecom Policy
4.5.4 National Broadband Policy 2004
4.5.5 Universal Service Obligation Fund (USOF)
4.6 National security

5. Major Operators in India
5.1 Market overview
5.2 Unified Access Service Licences (UASL)
5.2.1 Etisalat DB Telecom (Swan Telecom)
5.3 Mergers and acquisitions
5.4 BSNL/MTNL
5.5 Operator and market statistics
5.5.1 Mobile market
5.5.2 Fixed-line market
5.6 Operators overview
5.6.1 Aircel/Dishnet
5.6.2 Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL)
5.6.3 Bharti Airtel
5.6.4 Data Access
5.6.5 Hughes Telecom
5.6.6 Idea/Spice
5.6.7 Loop Mobile (formerly BPL Mobile)
5.6.8 Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL)
5.6.9 Reliance Communications
5.6.10 Sistema
5.6.11 Spice Telecom
5.6.12 S Tel
5.6.13 Tata Teleservices
5.6.14 Uninor (Unitech)
5.6.15 Videocon
5.6.16 Vodafone Essar (formerly Hutchison Essar Telecom)
5.7 Other operators and service providers
5.7.1 Mobile operators
5.7.2 Fixed network operators
5.7.3 Internet Service Providers (ISPs)

6. Telecommunications Infrastructure
6.1 National infrastructure
6.1.1 Overview
6.1.2 Statistics
6.1.3 Network development
6.1.4 Infrastructure sharing
6.1.5 Rural and regional networks
6.1.6 Fibre optic cable projects
6.1.7 Wireless Local Loop (WLL)
6.2 Infrastructure developments
6.2.1 IP networks
6.2.2 Next Generation Networks (NGN)
6.3 International infrastructure
6.3.1 Background
6.3.2 Interconnect agreements
6.3.3 India-Pakistan
6.3.4 International service disruption
6.3.5 Submarine cable networks
6.3.6 Satellite communications

7. Broadband and Internet Market
7.1 Broadband networks and services
7.1.1 Overview
7.1.2 Market development
7.1.3 National Broadband Policy
7.1.4 National Broadband Plan
7.1.5 Personal computers
7.1.6 Cable modems
7.1.7 Digital Subscriber Line (DSL)
7.1.8 Wireless broadband
7.1.9 Satellite
7.2 Internet market
7.2.1 Overview
7.2.2 Regulatory issues
7.3 Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP)

8. From Broadcasting to Digital Media
8.1 Overview
8.2 Digital media
8.3 Market statistics
8.4 Regulatory issues
8.4.1 Background
8.4.2 Cable Television Networks (Amendment) Bill
8.4.3 Convergence Bill 2001
8.4.4 Foreign investment
8.4.5 Conditional Access System (CAS)
8.4.6 Viacom - Network18 joint venture
8.5 TV and the transition to digital
8.5.1 Overview
8.5.2 Internet Protocol TV (IPTV)
8.5.3 Cable TV
8.5.4 Satellite TV
8.5.5 Major cable and pay TV operators
8.5.6 Free-to-Air TV

9. Mobile Communications
9.1 Overview of India’s mobile market
9.2 Mobile statistics
9.3 Mobile market segments
9.4 Development issues
9.4.1 Revenue and ARPU
9.4.2 Pricing and usage
9.4.3 MVNOs
9.4.4 Spectrum
9.4.5 Rural expansion
9.4.6 M-banking
9.4.7 Foreign investment
9.4.8 Future growth
9.5 Regulatory issues
9.5.1 Background
9.5.2 Developments in 2011
9.6 Mobile technologies
9.6.1 Overview of mobile technologies used in India
9.6.2 GSM
9.6.3 CDMA
9.6.4 Third Generation (3G) mobile
9.7 Mobile voice services
9.7.1 Prepaid
9.8 Mobile data services
9.8.1 Market overview
9.8.2 Short Message Service (SMS)
9.8.3 General Packet Radio Service (GPRS)
9.8.4 Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution (EDGE)
9.8.5 i-mode
9.8.6 BlackBerry
9.8.7 Mobile TV
9.8.8 Mobile content

10. Forecasts
10.1 Fixed-line forecasts - 2015; 2020
10.2 Internet forecasts - 2015; 2020
10.3 Mobile market forecasts - 2015; 2020
10.4 Notes on scenario forecasts

11. Glossary of Abbreviations

<Table>
Table 1 - Country statistics India - 2011
Table 2 - Telecom revenue and investment statistics - 2009
Table 3 - Telephone network statistics - 2010
Table 4 - Internet user statistics - 2010
Table 5 - Broadband statistics - 2010
Table 6 - Mobile statistics - 2010
Table 7 - National telecommunications authorities
Table 8 - India’s GDP real growth rate - 2006 - 2011
Table 9 - Fixed-line services versus mobile services and penetration - 2010
Table 10 - Foreign Direct Investment in telecom sector - 2004 - 2011
Table 11 - Telephone services to villages - 2010
Table 12 - Number of telecom licences issued by category - 2007 - 2008
Table 13 - Mobile operators and subscribers - 2010
Table 14 - Total mobile subscribers (GSM and CDMA) by operator and market share - 2010
Table 15 - GSM mobile operators, subscribers and market share - 2010
Table 16 - CDMA mobile operators, subscribers and market share - 2010
Table 17 -Overall mobile ARPU - 2005 - 2010
Table 18 - Mobile ARPU (GSM and CDMA), postpaid/prepaid - 2010
Table 19 - Mobile ARPU (blended) for selected operators - 2010
Table 20 - Fixed-line subscribers by operator - 2008 - 2010
Table 21 - Aircel mobile subscribers - 2004 - 2010
Table 22 - BSNL mobile subscribers - 2002 - 2010
Table 23 - Bharti Airtel mobile subscribers - 2002 - 2010
Table 24 - Bharti Airtel mobile ARPU - 2004 - 2005; 2007 - 2010
Table 26 - Idea/Spice mobile subscribers - 2002 - 2010
Table 27 - Idea/Spice mobile ARPU - 2007 - 2010
Table 28 - Loop Mobile (BPL) mobile subscribers - 2002 - 2010
Table 29 - MTNL mobile subscribers - 2002 - 2010
Table 30 - Reliance mobile subscribers - 2002 - 2010
Table 31 - Reliance mobile ARPU - 2007 - 2010
Table 33 - Sistema mobile subscribers - 2008 - 2010
Table 34 - Spice Telecom mobile subscribers - 2002 - 2008
Table 35 - S Tel mobile subscribers - 2009 - 2010
Table 36 - Tata Teleservices mobile subscribers - 2002 - 2010
Table 37 - Uninor mobile subscribers - 2009 - 2010
Table 38 - Videocon mobile subscribers - 2010
Table 39 - Vodafone Essar mobile subscribers - 2002 - 2011
Table 40 - Vodafone Essar mobile ARPU - 2008 - 2009
Table 41 - Number of licensed ISPs - 2002 - 2003; 2005; 2008 - 2010
Table 42 - ISP market - leading operators, subscribers and market share - 2010
Table 43 - Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity - 2005 - 2012
Table 44 - Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity - 1995 - 2005 (Historical)
Table 45 - Growth of VPT scheme - 2001 - 2010
Table 46 - PCOs in operation - 2003 - 2010
Table 47 - PCOs in operation and market share by operator - 2008
Table 48 - Fixed WLL subscribers - 2004 - 2006 (historical)
Table 49 - Broadband subscribers - 2001 - 2012
Table 50 - Broadband subscribers and households - 2010
Table 51 - Broadband subscribers by access and annual change - 2010
Table 52 - Internet subscribers and market share by access type - 2010
Table 53 - Broadband and Internet subscriber targets - 2005; 2007; 2010
Table 54 - Cable modem subscribers - 2001 - 2010
Table 55 - DSL subscribers - 2001 - 2010
Table 56 - Wireless broadband subscribers - 2003; 2006 - 2010
Table 57 - Internet users - 1995 - 2012
Table 58 - Internet subscribers - 1995 - 2012
Table 59 - Dial-up Internet subscribers - 2007 - 2012
Table 60 - Internet (dial-up) ARPU - 2005; 2007 - 2009
Table 61 - International Internet bandwidth - 2000 - 2010
Table 62 - Broadcasting market overview - 2010
Table 63 - Number of channels carried by cable operators - 2009 - 2010
Table 64 - Cable and TV households - 1995 - 2010
Table 65 - Total TV industry revenue - 2000 - 2010
Table 66 - Pay TV subscribers by technology - 2002 - 2009
Table 67 - DTH subscribers - 2008 - 2010
Table 68 - Overview of India’s mobile market - 2009 - 2010
Table 69 - Mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration - 2006 - 2012
Table 70 - Mobile subscribers (GSM and CDMA) - 2002 - 2010
Table 71 - GSM mobile subscribers and annual change - 1997 - 2010
Table 72 - Mobile penetration urban and rural - 2007; 2009 - 2010
Table 73 - Mobile services revenue - 1996 - 2012
Table 74 - Mobile ARPU by technology, prepaid/postpaid/blended - 2010
Table 75 - Mobile ARPU (GSM and CDMA) - 2005 - 2010
Table 76 -GSM mobile subscribers by region/circle - 2009 - 2010
Table 77 - GSM ARPU - 2003 - 2010
Table 78 - GSM ARPU by region/circle, prepaid/postpaid/blended - 2010
Table 79 - GSM mobile operators, subscribers and market share - 2010
Table 80 - GSM ARPU by operator grouping, prepaid/postpaid/blended - 2010
Table 81 - CDMA mobile operators, subscribers and market share - 2010
Table 82 - CDMA ARPU - 2003 - 2010
Table 83 - CDMA ARPU by region/circle, prepaid/postpaid/blended - 2010
Table 84 - 3G auction: Number of licences and total fees paid by operators - 2010
Table 85 - Prepaid mobile subscribers: share of total market - 2003 - 2010
Table 86 - Mobile ARPU by technology, prepaid/postpaid/blended - 2010
Table 87 - Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020
Table 88 - Forecast Internet subscribers - 2015; 2020
Table 89 - Forecast mobile subscribers - 2015; 2020

<Chart>
Chart 1 - Mobile operators’ market share by subscribers - 2010
Chart 2 - Fixed-line operator market share - 2010
Chart 3 - Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity - 2005 - 2012
Chart 4 - Internet subscribers and market share by access type - 2010
Chart 5 - Internet subscribers and growth - 2001 - 2012
Chart 6 - Cable and TV households and TV industry revenue - 2000 - 2010
Chart 7 - Mobile subscribers and penetration - 2006 - 2012
Chart 8 - Mobile subscribers by technology and mobile services revenue - 2002 - 2010
Chart 9 - GSM subscribers and ARPU - 2003 - 2010
Chart 10 - GSM mobile operator market share - 2010
Chart 11 - CDMA mobile operator market share - 2010
Chart 12 - CDMA subscribers and ARPU - 2003 - 2010

<Exhibit>
Exhibit 1 - Overview of FDI policy for India’s telecom sector
Exhibit 2- Fixed-line basic services by operator - 2010
Exhibit 3 - Major shareholders in Bharti Airtel - September 2009
Exhibit 4 - Bharti Airtel - mobile operations - key statistics
Exhibit 5 - Idea Cellular - mobile operations - key statistics
Exhibit 6 - Reliance Communications - mobile operations - key statistics
Exhibit 7 - Tata Teleservices - mobile operations - key statistics
Exhibit 8 - Vodafone Essar - mobile operations - key statistics
Exhibit 9 - International submarine cable systems with landing points in India - 2011
Exhibit 10 - ISRO Satellite Network - May 2011
Exhibit 11 - Broadcasting Standard and major broadcasters
Exhibit 12 - Information on FTA turned Pay and New Pay Channels
Exhibit 13 - Overview of major channels available to consumers in India
Exhibit 14 - Operators issued DTH licences - 2011
Exhibit 15 - CDMA 3G commercial deployment in India
Exhibit 16 - 3G auction results: Service area licences by operator - May 2010

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